dimarts, 16 d’octubre de 2012

Reason 36: Best way to lower the risk premium, reducing public debt and, therefore, getting out of the crisis.



I've been trying to find information on the risk premium of the future Catalan State and unfortunately could not find any concrete data. The risk premium is going up and down constantly and it seems difficult to find meaningful data.
 However, I have read some articles that point to a lower Risk premium with independence. The conclusion I get is:
The new  Catalan state will discuss with Spain Catalan how much of the Spanish debt will take. This will only happen after there is an agreement. While there isn’t any agreement Catalonia will have the lowest debt in Europe, only 21% of the GPD.  Catalonia will agree taking a part of the Spanish debt with certain conditions, for example that Spain does not put obstacles  to the access of Catalonia to the EU or other international organizations (political, economic, sports, etc.). 
In any case, if Catalonia takes a big part of the debt, the debt won’t more than 75% of GDP. The exact calculations find them here: http://salaimartin.com/randomthoughts/item/424-la-falacia-de-la-deuda-heredada.html
This means that in the worst case scenario the Catalan state debt will far below the Spanish and also lower than the European average. Next to this it must be said that Catalonia will not suffer from the fiscal deficit and will have a surplus so it won’t be a problem to pay back the debt. This will mean that, as Catalonia will have a large capacity to pay money back, the status of the Catalan State will go from the current status ‘junk' to go towards having  a AA or AAA.
To this one must add that all blockades Spain aplies to Catalonia will vanish, and as a result of this the Catalan economy will grow and the situation will get even better. Spain has over the years (not worth to say how many, we should go back too far back in history) applied several laws  and measures against the interests of Catalonia. There are several examples:
·      It has blocked the access of Catalan companies to the global markets (embargo of intercontinental flights to or from Barcelona is an example),
·      It blocks the support of Catalan companies (not supporting Spanair is an example but there are several more, such as Gas Natural that was blocked from the access to purchase a Spanish company just because they did not want a Catalan company to be the owner of a Spanish company, in the end the Spanish company was sold to a German party),
·      not investing in necessary infrastructures in Catalonia, not investing what they promised, Spain promised 18% of the total budget for Catalonia in infrastructures, as they recognized they had been investing unreasonably too few,  the fact is that the past few years they did not fulfill their promise and only dedicated 11% of the budget to Catalonia the past years, but in the end only 4% was really spent.
·      Harbour of Barcelona, Catalan highways, Catalan railways, Airport of Barcelona, they all are ruled by Spain and in all these cases we have to pay higher tolls, higher rates than everybody else, and get less, we have to deal with outdated trains, a permanent lack of investments for decades, and a constant embargo of our access to the global world. This is not a sustainable situation.  This is an extreme financial strangulation.
·      Catalans pay 2.6 billion euros (2.600 millions) for culture and only half of that is spent in Catalonia, with an own state the entire amount will be spent in our country.
·      We must add that having an own State will lower the unemployment rates by default, as I mentioned in another post as we are paying now 200.000 Civil servants in Madrid and these jobs will go to Catalonia  (http://raonsperlaindependencia.blogspot.nl/2012/07/rao-47 -only-way-to-create-400000.html).
·      The new Catalan State will need teachers and Catalan translators and interpreters around the world. This also will employ a handful of people.
All these blockades will vanish and  the economy will grow, which under Spanish rule is impossible. This will further reduce the risk premium and also the Catalan debt if we do things well.
Catalonia will have all its taxes to invest in the own facilities and infrastructures, in its own companies and its own culture (just like any other country in Europe) and will not have any embargos or blockades (that we do have under Spanish rule) as the EU does not allow such a situation between countries. We have in the EU a guarantee of freedom, democracy and human rights and any company can do business in any other country of the EU. So, it is not a matter of creating new borders, it is just a matter of being able to decide for ourselves, as the neigbour country is deciding for us and this is not working.
 A Spanish publisher said they would go. I do not think they would, companies want to earn money and nobody wants to lose the oportunity to invest in a growing market. In these days of severe crisis, certainly of the publishers industry, what publisher would move to Madrid, that will become the mirror of Athens,  and lose the oportunity of being part of a growing Catalan publising industry as a result of Catalan independence:

Conclusion: The new Catalan state will have great oportunities of development and the Risk Premium will be very low and whithin some years it could be between the lowest in the EU.

Other articles defending my arguments:

http://www.reusdigital.cat/index.php?command=show_news&news_id=28356
http://santtornemhi.blogspot.nl/2012/09/el-primer-argument-objectivable-de.html

dissabte, 13 d’octubre de 2012

Reason 35: No independence = boycott forever. Independence = end of boycotts.

<< Poster calling for boycott of Catalan products 1931. One of the reasons given by some Spaniards against independence is the threat of a boycot of Catalan products. It is not the first time Catalan products have suffered from a Boycott. In 1931 Spaniards called to boycott Catalan products. In 2005, with the negotiation on the new Catalan Organic Law “Estatut”, Spaniards called again to boycott Catalan products. The boycotts have never ceased. Some Spaniards keep track of what companies are Catalan and boycott their products. They have made dozens of web sites dedicated to promote this never ending boycott. What they don’t understand is that the volume of Catalan companies in the Spanish market, partially due to this never ending boycott, has diminished from 80% in the beginning of the nineties, to around 30% today.
Catalan companies understood long ago that the Spanish market was shrinking (and the boycott helped a bit to shrink it even more) and seeked to grow in the European market, with which export has grown and the biggest part of the export volume today is in European countries rather than in Spain. If 20 years ago the majority of the Catalan entrepreneurs saw a necessity to remain under Spanish authority, today the majority of entrepreneurs do not have Spain as the main market any more. As in the 1930’s entrepreneurs feared to loose their advantage to have Spain as market, today Spain is more and more becoming a residual market that does nothing else but shrink. So, not very interesting. The boycott isn’t the only reason why this is happening, but it helps. So I would say to all Spaniards who are working hard to boycott our products: THANK YOU!
Evern since 1931 Spaniards boycott our products. I do not see any reason why they would stop as long as Catalonia is under Spanish dominance. In any case, the effect of the boycott has been calculated and in the worst of the cases it would mean 4% decrease of the Catalan GPD. But as we have a deficit of 8% our economy would anyway grow by 4%. Spaniards sometimes also boycott products from other countries, such as the boycott to French products during the nuclear exercises they carried out in the Pacific Ocean in the 90’s. As long as I can remember Spain hasn’t done any boycott to former colonies who proclaimed independence from Spain last century. Neither does the UK boycott any products of the USA or Ireland because they separated from the UK. Independence might lead to a boycott during the first years. But one thing is sure: we are having boycotts already since 1931. I am positive Spaniards will not boycott forever products from an independent Catalan State in the EU. The boycott will become a historic anecdote of the times in which Spaniards depended on Catalans and Catalans on Spaniards. I think for Catalans this is history already. Video on the positive effects of Spanish boycott (in Catalan): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcH2dfX7oCA&feature=relmfu Article on the effects of a boycott: http://pepegins.com/2012/09/30/atenuacio-de-lefecte-boicot-sobre-els-productes-catalans/ Cercle català de negocis also has done some calculations on this matter: http://www.ccncat.cat/articles/informa/catalunya-superaria-un-boicot-comercial-espanyol-en-cas-que-el-pa%C3%ADs-es-declar%C3%A9s The images of the boycott you can find in several websites dedicated to this Spanish hobby that feeds us of arguments for secession: http://www.forocoches.com/foro/showthread.php?t=455504&page=9 http://www.stralunato.com/2006/12/05/sigue-el-boicot-a-los-productos-catalanes/ http://cosasdegely.blogspot.nl/2012/10/cataluna-no-es-espana-pues-ahi-teneis.html http://lapoliticadegeppetto.blogspot.nl/2012/04/ciclogenesis-explosiva-politica.html