I've been trying to find information on the risk premium of the future Catalan
State and unfortunately could not find any concrete data. The risk premium is
going up and down constantly and it seems difficult to find meaningful data.
However, I have
read some articles that point to a lower Risk premium with independence. The
conclusion I get is:
The new
Catalan state will discuss
with Spain Catalan how much of the Spanish debt will take. This will only
happen after there is an agreement. While there isn’t any agreement Catalonia will
have the lowest debt in Europe, only 21% of the GPD.
Catalonia will agree taking a part of the Spanish debt with certain
conditions, for example that Spain does not put obstacles
to the access of Catalonia to the EU or
other international organizations (political, economic, sports, etc.).
In any case, if Catalonia takes a big part of the debt, the debt won’t more
than 75% of GDP. The exact calculations find them here:
http://salaimartin.com/randomthoughts/item/424-la-falacia-de-la-deuda-heredada.html
This means that in the worst case scenario the Catalan state debt will far
below the Spanish and also lower than the European average. Next to this it
must be said that Catalonia will not suffer from the fiscal deficit and will
have a surplus so it won’t be a problem to pay back the debt. This will mean
that, as Catalonia will have a large capacity to pay money back, the status of
the Catalan State will go from the current status ‘junk' to go towards having
a AA or AAA.
To this one must add that all blockades Spain aplies to Catalonia
will vanish, and as a result of this the Catalan economy will grow and the
situation will get even better. Spain has over the years (not worth to say how many,
we should go back too far back in history) applied several laws and measures against the interests of
Catalonia. There are several examples:
·
It has blocked the access of Catalan companies
to the global markets (embargo of intercontinental flights to or from Barcelona
is an example),
·
It blocks the support of Catalan companies (not
supporting Spanair is an example but there are several more, such as Gas
Natural that was blocked from the access to purchase a Spanish company just
because they did not want a Catalan company to be the owner of a Spanish
company, in the end the Spanish company was sold to a German party),
·
not investing in necessary infrastructures in
Catalonia, not investing what they promised, Spain promised 18% of the total
budget for Catalonia in infrastructures, as they recognized they had been
investing unreasonably too few,
the fact is that the past few years they did not fulfill their promise
and only dedicated 11% of the budget to Catalonia the past years, but in the
end only 4% was really spent.
·
Harbour of Barcelona, Catalan highways, Catalan
railways, Airport of Barcelona, they all are ruled by Spain and in all these
cases we have to pay higher tolls, higher rates than everybody else, and get
less, we have to deal with outdated trains, a permanent lack of investments for
decades, and a constant embargo of our access to the global world. This is not
a sustainable situation. This is
an extreme financial strangulation.
·
Catalans pay 2.6 billion euros (2.600 millions)
for culture and only half of that is spent in Catalonia, with an own state the
entire amount will be spent in our country.
·
The new Catalan State will need teachers and
Catalan translators and interpreters around the world. This also will employ a
handful of people.
All these blockades will vanish and the economy will grow, which under
Spanish rule is impossible. This will further reduce the risk premium and also
the Catalan debt if we do things well.
Catalonia will have all its taxes to invest in the own facilities and
infrastructures, in its own companies and its own culture (just like any other
country in Europe) and will not have any embargos or blockades (that we do have
under Spanish rule) as the EU does not allow such a situation between countries.
We have in the EU a guarantee of freedom, democracy and human rights and any
company can do business in any other country of the EU. So, it is not a matter
of creating new borders, it is just a matter of being able to decide for
ourselves, as the neigbour country is deciding for us and this is not working.
A Spanish
publisher said they would go. I do not think they would, companies want to earn
money and nobody wants to lose the oportunity to invest in a growing market. In
these days of severe crisis, certainly of the publishers industry, what
publisher would move to Madrid, that will become the mirror of Athens, and lose the oportunity of being part
of a growing Catalan publising industry as a result of Catalan independence:
Conclusion: The new Catalan state will have great oportunities of development
and the Risk Premium will be very low and whithin some years it could be
between the lowest in the EU.
Other articles defending my arguments:
http://www.reusdigital.cat/index.php?command=show_news&news_id=28356
http://santtornemhi.blogspot.nl/2012/09/el-primer-argument-objectivable-de.html